Technological learning and the future of solar H2: A component learning comparison of solar thermochemical cycles and electrolysis with solar PV

This analysis uses component learning curves to investigate the effect of policy support on the future potential of two methods of producing hydrogen using solar energy: solar thermochemical cycles and electrolysis with solar photovoltaics. The impact of policy support for photovoltaics, electrolysis, concentrated solar power, and thermochemical reactors is assessed. The rates of growth of the four technologies are taken as proxies for the degree of policy support. Key assumptions are identified and results are considered over the range of reasonable assumptions. Initially, electrolysis with PV will be the less expensive way to produce solar hydrogen. However, though it is initially more expensive, the thermochemical cycle has greater long-term potential for cost reductions from learning, and it is the faster route to $2/kg hydrogen. Cost reductions in hydrogen from the thermochemical cycles are primarily driven by improvements in the thermochemical reactors, which, due to initially high costs, will only see growth through government support. Thus, policymakers must support the thermochemical cycles through their research, development, and early implementation stages in order to achieve these cost reductions. Though the details change when key parameters are varied over their range of reasonable values, the broad conclusions are unaffected.

Title	Technological learning and the future of solar H2: A component learning comparison of solar thermochemical cycles and electrolysis with solar PV
Creator	Nicodemus, Julia Haltiwanger
Publisher	Energy Policy
Academic Department	Engineering Studies
Division	Engineering
Organization	Lafayette College
Date Issued	September 2018
Date Available	2019-12-06
Type	Article
Language	English
Keyword	Photovoltaics
	Thermochemical cycles
	Solar fuels
	Electrolysis
	Learning curves
	Renewable hydrogen
Bibliographic Citation	Nicodemus, J. H. (2018 Sept) "Technological learning and the future of solar H2: A component learning comparison of solar thermochemical cycles and electrolysis with solar PV." Energy Policy 120: 100-109.
Standard Identifier	Handle 10385/n296wz55d
Standard Identifier	DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.072
Permalink	http://hdl.handle.net/10385/n296wz55d
Rights Statement	In Copyright
Rights Holders	Elsevier Ltd.